The ‘55% rule’: ‘till death do us part?
Posted by Lydia Taylor on 24 May 2010
Last week the new government confirmed its plans to introduce ‘the 55% rule’, under which the existing government would dissolve by 55% of Parliamentary votes. The beady eyes of political commentators from all parts of the spectrum were quick to point out that the number of Conservative MPs is 47% – therefore requiring 2% of Conservative MPs to ‘defect’ and vote to abolish their own Party’s minority government. Unsurprisingly, the plans have not been well received. David Davies in the Telegraph this week said it was undemocratic and unaccountable, whilst writing for Conservative Home Chris Chope MP branded it a Liberal Democrat plot to hold onto their kingmaker powers, whilst those in redder camps have cried all manner of claims from ‘dictatorship’ to fears of gerrymandering if combined with voting reform.
Yet despite this response, the coalition has retained the reform. But what would the rule really mean? As the Conservatives have not got a 50% majority, if the Coalition falls apart before May 2015 the Liberal Democrats will essentially be able to veto any legislation proposed, unless it has support for Labour. Combined, the other parties will be able to threaten the minority Government with a situation of stalemate, thereby forcing them to call an election.
The fear is, therefore, that whilst it may be in the Liberal Democrats best interest to stay in office for as long as possible (or at least until they achieve voting reform) , they can equally use the threat to walk as leverage to achieve their core ‘aims’ (e.g. voting reform). However, should the coalition be deemed unworkable by the Conservatives, they are likely to find willing election-calling collaborators in Labour. Furthermore, in the long run the situation would only occur again if there was another hung parliament, in which case the minority government would be faced by the same dilemma, and the same likely solution. Therefore, in reality this grand constitutional change does not mean much.
What the 55% rule would do is lock both Parties into this coalition beyond this first honeymoon period, giving weight to what is, essentially, a marriage of convenience. Should the coalition fall apart, it would also force both Parties to divorce, draw daggers, and fight it out, but in reality this would be the most likely outcome anyway. Constitutional reform should not be taken likely, however, in this age of ‘New Politics’, it will ensure that power-sharing in a hung parliament will not be a ‘quick fix’, but a lengthy negotiation.
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