College Public Policy

Posted by Chris Lowe on 29 January 2010

The most recent polls point to either a very small Conservative majority or a hung parliament after the next General Election.  It is a peculiarity of how the votes stack up that even if the Conservatives are 10 points ahead of Labour there could be a hung parliament, while if Labour were that far ahead, they would enjoy a 120 seat majority.

But a hung parliament does not automatically mean a coalition government, nor LibDem seats around the Cabinet table.  Assuming that Nick Clegg sticks to his recent assertion that “A fairer voting system is one of the key changes I want to see”, then I cannot see that either of the two major parties being able to carry their MPs through the Aye lobby in such a Commons vote.  There may be alternative arrangements  to be made, and this week’s news of a Conservative Party meeting with the Ulster’s Unionist Parties may have been set up to devise an electoral pact.

But Cameron could carry on as a minority government as Harold Wilson did after the indecisive 1974 General Election.  He would have to get tacit support from some of the other Parties to pass the Queen’s Speech and Budget, but in reality, there would be little appetite from the Labour Party for a swift second General Election after losing its majority.

And what would that mean for lobbying?  With either a hung parliament or a small majority, there would be a considerable shift if lobbying activity.  Sure, it would remain important to lobby early in the process, but for the first time since John Major’s final days in the mid-90s, the Government would not be in a position to guarantee that they would routinely win Commons votes.

With a hung parliament, organisations faced with legislation they oppose would attempt to build an alliance of all the opposition parties, often with support from the media and the wider population.  Such a campaign may even cause a minority Government to withdraw proposals before they reach the House.

If there is a small majority, the lobbying effort would focus on trying to persuade a small, but significant, number of Conservative MPs to abstain or vote against their whip, particularly where there might be good local constituency reasons for doing so.  Of course, the number of MPs ready to vote against their Party immediately after a General Election victory will be low, but every Party has its discontents, and numbers grow through a parliament.

Whatever the result of the election, new lobbying strategies and tactics will need to be employed.

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